November blues exist.

 

Arsenal FC v Paris Saint-Germain - UEFA Champions League

If you personify the month November and compare him to a kid in the playground, he is the bully which makes Arsenal’s life hell.

November is that month of the season in which you get some direction to where a team is headed and if they are likely to do anything in the season. It is not conclusive, but it gives you a good idea.

For Arsenal, however, November sucks.

I did some digging in to drill in my point. I made a list of all the games we have had since the 2012 season, specifically for the month of November. Disclaimer to Arsenal fans, go watch “IT”, it is less horrifying than the stats you are going to witness…

2012-13

Played 5 – Points picked up out of a possible 15?

6.

Games thrown away, look at 2,4 and 5.

2013-14

Played 5 – Points picked up out of a possible 15?

12.

Games thrown away, look at 2. Believe you me, this was the outlier November.

2014-15

Played 3 – Points picked up out of a possible 9?

3.

Games thrown away? Both, since this was the season in which even Manchester United was shit.

2015-16

Played 3 – Points picked up out of a possible 9?

2.

We drew to Norwich and lost to Albion – both away and we drew to Tottenham at home. Seeing a trend already?

2016-17

Played 3 – Points picked up out of a possible 9?

5.

To be fair, these games were not easy. Although Giroud saved us with his 90th min header and we scored 0 goals in the derby, this too was one of the better Novembers.

Our total games played over these 5 years are 19, which means a total of 57 points. Of this, we have picked up – 28.

In short, we have a 49% chance of picking up points in each game this November.

Just think about that for a moment – if I told you that there is 50:50 chance that a team will pick up (may win or draw) points against the teams it faces this month, would you categorise that team as a “title challenging team”

Over a season, if we consider that out of 38 games, a team will pick up points only in 19 games that give us maximum points of 57 (assuming they won 19 out of 19) – the end league position over one year would be about 7th to 9th.

This is our fixture list below :

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 10.09.45 AM

If you do not consider Cologne (which you should not since we are talking about the premier league specifically), what are the odds that we will get points vs Burnley and Huddersfield and drop points against City and Spurs?

I’ll leave that for you to ponder over.

..I hope I am wrong.